Prediction Markets
5 posts
Intro to pred markets
Intro to Prediction Markets, Part 0: What are Prediction Markets?
A prediction market is a venue where people buy and sell contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome of a specified future event. The event in question…
2026-08-27 · 5 min read
Intro to pred markets
Intro to Prediction Markets, Part 1: Comparison to Other Markets, Especially Derivatives
Prediction markets share many features of other financial derivatives. First among them is the idea of an underlying quantity, from which the contract's value…
2026-08-28 · 4 min read
Intro to pred markets
Intro to Prediction Markets, Part 2: Why Classical Metrics Fail
Previously, we made several comparisons to other financial markets, and one point that was touched upon was a question about how to evaluate strategies; in tha…
2026-09-03 · 4 min read
Intro to pred markets
Intro to Prediction Markets, Part 3: The Growth Rate
Last post, we established why several metrics used to study a trading strategy might not be generally appropriate at all, or not appropriate for prediction mar…
2026-09-11 · 5 min read
Intro to pred markets
Intro to Prediction Markets, Part 4: Performance Metrics for Binary Compounding
In Part 2 of this series, we show that classical metrics like the Sharpe ratio, win rate and Brier score failed to properly evaluate prediction market strategi…
2026-09-11 · 7 min read